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Bulgarian Ministry of Finance forecasts average annual Inflation of 10.4%

The average annual inflation will reach 10.4% this year, according to the spring macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry of Finance.

According to the baseline scenario developed in the forecast of the Ministry of Finance, transport fuels will rise by 25.1%, BNR reports.

Brent oil will have an average price of one hundred dollars per barrel, according to the Ministry of Finance. It seems that again this price is underestimated because even now Brent is more expensive. There will be a serious rise in food products, services and non-energy products, which will lead to an average annual inflation of 10.4 percent.

In the most severe alternative scenario, more than two percentage points are added to this forecast.

The main risk to it is the development of the war in Ukraine, which is also identified as the most serious geopolitical factor. It affects not only the supply of certain goods but also supply chains, which proved to be particularly problematic during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Unemployment will remain low, but economic growth will slow, according to the finance ministry’s forecasts.

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