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Gallup International Balkan: Mid-April Elections Would Have Pitted Continue the Change and GERB-UDF against Each Other Again

If elections were held in mid-April, Continue the Change and GERB-UDF would again have come out neck and neck, a new poll by Gallup International Balkan released on Saturday shows. The poll is part of the monthly independent research programme of the agency. It was taken through random face-to-face surveys between March 31 and April 3, 2022 among 809 adult Bulgarians, representative for the country’s adult population.
This time, though, the players would also have included the Vazrazhdane party. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and Democratic Bulgaria would have been forced to boost their firm supporters additionally, while There Is Such a People (TISP) and VMRO would have received a spot on firm electoral support, probably because of the currently popular subject of the Republic of North Macedonia.
As previously, the same seven formations would enter Parliament. The chances of Continue the Change to win against GER-UDF still look slightly better, but are dwindling. On the basis of real expectations for voting, the latter already has a better outlook than the former.
Over the months, Continue the Change has suffered the standard erosion if support in the course of term of governing formations, exacerbated by the unfavourable international conditions, and is already at 16.1 per cent of all eligible voters, compared to the 20 per cent it had some time ago. With 14.4 per cent, GERB-UDF retains its firm levels. In terms of firm voter support, though, GERB-UDF would get 25.9 per cent and Continue the Change – 23.8 per cent. The situation resembles the one before last year’s autumn elections, Gallup says, when GERB had the firmer support and Continue the Change relied on mobilization of it rather potentially broader electorate. Now this electorate seems to be more hesitant.
The MRF retains its traditional levels of 7.2 per cent of eligible voters and 10.6 per cent of the potentially voting participants in the polls. The traditionally high degree of faithfulness, albeit among a smaller electorate, ranks the BSP at a smaller distance behind the MRF with “hard” supporters of 10.3 per cent. With 5.0 per cent of all eligible voters, though, this leaves BSP after TISP with its 6.5 per cent. TISP, however, would have 7.0 per cent of the real votes, where they would be outflanked by Vazrazhdane with 7.9 per cent. Vazrazhdane is also the single formation that continues to climb up the chart. If it had 2.5 per cent from all eligible voters two months ago, now it has the support of 4.4 per cent and probably also a “hidden” vote. The last to make it in Parliament if elections were held now would be Democratic Bulgaria. The coalition has 3.5 per cent potential electoral support among eligible voters, but 4.5 per cent among those who would really vote.